Make Bow-tie Dynamic by Rethinking it as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network. Dynamic Risk Assessment of an LNG Bunkering Operation

In the present era, the spread of cyber-physical systems in the framework of the so-called Industry 4.0, is leading towards a complete automation of industrial processes, which are increasingly decentralized, smart, and require fewer and fewer frontline personnel. The risk assessment process is certainly not excluded from the revolution, and in perspective needs to be automatic, dynamic and linked with the conditions that emerge, moment by moment, in the life of a complex system. Analytical techniques can help in converting data in information and hence system knowledge to spot trends in operational performance, thus improving risk assessment quality. Even though the bow-tie approach is widely used within the context of complex systems, it still evidences several limitations, mainly connected to the actual assessment of likelihood and interdependencies in the fault and event trees. This paper shows how a bow tie analysis can be reframed as a Hierarchical Bayesian Network, where the probability distributions of the network nodes are updated with real time predictions during the operations. The proposed model was then applied to the risk assessment of a shore-to-ship LNG bunkering operation

Improvement of Tuberculosis Laboratory Capacity on Pemba Island, Zanzibar: A Health Cooperation Project.

Low-income countries with high Tuberculosis burden have few reference laboratories able to perform TB culture. In 2006, the Zanzibar National TB Control Programme planned to decentralize TB diagnostics. The Italian Cooperation Agency with the scientific support of the "L. Spallanzani" National Institute for Infectious Diseases sustained the project through the implementation of a TB reference laboratory in a low-income country with a high prevalence of TB. The implementation steps were: 1) TB laboratory design according to the WHO standards; 2) laboratory equipment and reagent supplies for microscopy, cultures, and identification; 3) on-the-job training of the local staff; 4) web- and telemedicine-based supervision. From April 2007 to December 2010, 921 sputum samples were received from 40 peripheral laboratories: 120 TB cases were diagnosed. Of all the smear-positive cases, 74.2% were culture-positive. During the year 2010, the smear positive to culture positive rate increased up to 100%. In March 20, 2010 the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare of Zanzibar officially recognized the Public Health Laboratory- Ivo de Carneri as the National TB Reference Laboratory for the Zanzibar Archipelago. An advanced TB laboratory can represent a low cost solution to strengthen the TB diagnosis, to provide capacity building and mid-term sustainability

Codes and standards on computational wind engineering for structural design: State of art and recent trends

This paper first provides a wide overview about the design codes and standards covering the use of Computational Wind Engineering / Computational Fluid Dynamics (CWE/CFD) for wind-sensitive structures and built environment. Second, the paper sets out the basic assumptions and underlying concepts of the new Annex T "Simulations by Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD/CWE)" of the revised version "Guide for the assessment of wind actions and effects on structures" issued by the Advisory Committee on Technical Recommendations for Constructions of the Italian National Research Council in February 2019 and drafted by the members of the Special Interest Group on Computational Wind Engineering of the Italian Association for Wind Engineering (ANIV-CWE). The same group is currently advising UNI CT021/SC1 in supporting the drafting of the new Annex K - "Derivation of design parameters from wind tunnel tests and numerical simulations" of the revised Eurocode 1: Actions on structures - Part 1-4: General actions - Wind actions. Finally, the paper outlines the subjects most open to development at the technical and applicative level

The XYZ states: Experimental and theoretical status and perspectives

The quark model was formulated in 1964 to classify mesons as bound states made of a quark-antiquark pair, and baryons as bound states made of three quarks. For a long time all known mesons and baryons could be classified within this scheme. Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD), however, in principle also allows the existence of more complex structures, generically called exotic hadrons or simply exotics. These include four-quark hadrons (tetraquarks and hadronic molecules), five-quark hadrons (pentaquarks) and states with active gluonic degrees of freedom (hybrids), and even states of pure glue (glueballs). Exotic hadrons have been systematically searched for in numerous experiments for many years. Remarkably, in the past fifteen years, many new hadrons that do not exhibit the expected properties of ordinary (not exotic) hadrons have been discovered in the quarkonium spectrum. These hadrons are collectively known as $XYZ$ states. Some of them, like the charged states, are undoubtedly exotic. Parallel to the experimental progress, the last decades have also witnessed an enormous theoretical effort to reach a theoretical understanding of the $XYZ$ states. Theoretical approaches include not only phenomenological extensions of the quark model to exotics, but also modern non-relativistic effective field theories and lattice QCD calculations. The present work aims at reviewing the rapid progress in the field of exotic $XYZ$ hadrons over the past few years both in experiments and theory. It concludes with a summary on future prospects and challenges

Quarkonium in Hot Medium

I review recent progress in studying quarkonium properties in hot medium as well as possible consequences for quarkonium production in heavy ion collisions.Comment: Invited talk at SQM 2009, Buzios, Brazil, Sep. 27 -Oct. 2 2009, LaTeX, 8 pages,3 figures; typos corrected, references adde

Lessons learnt from ORGAP Project – planning, implementation and evaluation of Action Plans for Organic Food and Farming

Within the EU funded project ORGAP, a toolbox was developed for the evaluation of the European as well as national action plans for organic food and farming. Also recommendations and a resource manual for policy makers and stakeholders were developed. These were based on the analysis of national Organic Action Plans as well as stakeholder and expert consultation. The analysis showed that several EU member states have emphasised the need to balance supply-push policies with more market-focused demand-pull policies. An integrated approach is required and this has been to differing degrees through the formulation of multi-functional Organic Action Plans (OAPs), which also adress the dual roles of organic farming (from a policy perspective) to provide public goods and satisfy consumer demand. Eight Organic Action Plans, reviewed in the ORGAP project, vary with regard to the elaboration process, targets, objectives and the emphasis of measures on certain areas (e.g. market versus environment orientation). This variation is due to quite different political and socio-economic framework conditions for organic farming in these countries. It revealed that the weaknesses identified in the status quo analysis of the organic sector have only partly been translated to the targets and measures included in the action plan documents. Definition of the priorities for development of organic agriculture must be agreed by all relevant stakeholders. The priorities, and hence the programmes, will depend on correct analysis of the issues (and conflicts) that need to be addressed and clear objectives with measurable outcomes (for effective evaluation). For more information on the project, on the practical project manual and the evaluation toolbox for Organic Action Plans see project website www.orgap.or

Hospital discharges-based search of acute flaccid paralysis cases 2007-2016 in Italy and comparison with the National Surveillance System for monitoring the risk of polio reintroduction

Background: Acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance has been adopted globally as a key strategy for monitoring the progress of the polio eradication initiative. Hereby, to evaluate the completeness of the ascertainment of AFP cases in Italy, a hospital-discharges based search was carried out. Methods: AFP cases occurring between 2007 and 2016 among children under 15 years of age were searched in the Italian Hospital Discharge Records (HDR) database using specific ICD-9-CM diagnostic codes. AFP cases identified between 2015 and 2016 were then compared with those notified to the National Surveillance System (NSS). Results: Over a 10-year period, 4163 hospital discharges with diagnosis of AFP were reported in Italy. Among these, 956 (23.0%) were acute infective polyneuritis, 1803 (43.3%) myopathy, and 1408 (33.8%) encephalitis, myelitis and encephalomyelitis. During the study period, a decreasing trend was observed for all diagnoses and overall the annual incidence rate (IR) declined from 5.5 to 4.5 per 100,000 children. Comparing NSS with HDR data in 2015-2016, we found a remarkable underreporting, being AFP cases from NSS only 14% of those recorded in HDR. In particular, the acute infective polyneuritis cases reported to NSS accounted for 42.6% of those detected in HDR, while only 0.9% of myopathy cases and 13.1% of encephalitis/myelitis/encephalomyelitis cases have been notified to NSS. The highest AFP IRs per 100,000 children calculated on HDR data were identified in Liguria (17.4), Sicily (5.7), and Veneto (5.1) Regions; regarding the AFP notified to the NSS, 11 out of 21 Regions failed to reach the number of expected cases (based on 1/100,000 rate), and the highest discrepancies were observed in the Northern Regions. Overall, the national AFP rate was equal to 0.6, therefore did not reach the target value. Conclusions: AFP surveillance data are the final measure of a country's progress towards polio eradication. The historical data obtained by the HDR have been useful to assess the completeness of the notification data and to identify the Regions with a low AFP ascertainment rate in order to improve the national surveillance system